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Iran can go up to two months without oil exports before cutting output
April 16, 2026 2026-04-16 10:13Iran can go up to two months without oil exports before cutting output
Iran can go up to two months without oil exports before cutting output
Iran can withstand a complete halt in oil exports of up to two months before being forced to curb production, analysts said, after the U.S. began blocking shipping in and out of the country’s ports on April 13.
The blockade could prevent roughly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude from reaching its main buyer China. Any Iranian production shutdowns would add to more than 12 million bpd of supply already disrupted by the regional war, tightening markets further and lifting oil prices.
With its exports blocked, Iran faces having to divert crude into onshore storage tanks. Once those tanks are filled, the OPEC member would be required to curb upstream output. Consultancy FGE NextantECA estimates Iran has about 90 million barrels of available onshore crude storage capacity, out of total capacity of roughly 122 million barrels.
